2024 College Football Draft Offensive Prospect Trends
As we enter the last week of an entertaining and surprising college football regular season, the introduction of the expanded twelve team playoff field and the continuing impact that the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) has had on the management of college rosters, is making the game unpredictable and entertaining on the field for fans of non-traditional powers such as Indiana and SMU that have overachieved this year and heartbreaking and ego smashing for fans of traditional powers like Michigan, Florida State, and Alabama that have stumbled this season. Similarly, several players who entered the season as intriguing prospects have climbed up draft boards and have elevated their status as next April approaches including QB Cam Ward (Miami, Fl), RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State), TE Tyler Warren (Penn State), EDGE Mikhail Kamara (Indiana), and CB Quincy Riley (Louisville). Likewise, prospects QB Carson Beck (Georgia), RB Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State), and EDGE Patrick Payton (Florida State) have underperformed and left the scouting community scratching their collective heads, wondering what is going on. Let’s take a look at a few of the draft trends that the 2024 college football revealed.
NFL teams looking for a franchise QB may be out of luck
The Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos franchises one year ago at this time were stumbling their way to mediocrity with little hope for future improvement. After selecting Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, respectively, each team is on the cusp of making the playoffs in their rookie years. Unfortunately, for teams looking for similar results from the prospective QBs in the 2025 class, this is unlikely to repeat itself. Each of the top QB prospects have significant issues that need to be addressed before they can confidently lead their team at the NFL level. Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) is generally considered the top QB prospect available next April. Sanders, who will play in the East-West Shrine Game on January 30th, has led a remarkable turnaround in Boulder and has the Buffaloes to conference title contention. The son of Hall of Famer Deion has a flair for the dramatic and never gives up on a play. But he holds on to the ball too long waiting for his receiver to get open. Similarly to the struggles suffered by Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams, Sanders takes too long processing coverages and pressure packages and does not throw with enough desired anticipation. Additionally, sources from the Sanders camp seem to indicate that he only wants to play for certain NFL organizations and will refuse to play for others. This only complicates the process of finding the right organizational fit at the NFL level. Cam Ward (Miami, Fl) went from an under-recruited two-star prospect who only had one offer from Division 2 power Incarnate Word (Texas), to a scrappy fighter leading a gritty team at Washington State, to a high-profile transfer who is one win away from leading the Hurricanes to the ACC Championship Game. Ward is a fantastic leader who responds well under pressure and performs very well in the clutch, leading his team to several come from behind victories. He has a very good arm, is accurate, reads the field well, and is a dangerous runner outside the pocket. And although his decision making is typically solid, he has a tendency to force the ball into coverage and has some “riverboat gambler” tendencies reminiscent of Brett Favre. His style of play will not fit every offensive system and he may not be favored by conservative play callers in the NFL. Carson Beck (Georgia) came into the season considered the top QB prospect potentially available next April. He has the desired height, frame, and arm strength to prosper in any NFL system. But he has seemingly regressed this season, not seeing the field as well as last year, and making some head scratching decisions. After throwing only six interceptions in 2023, Beck has thrown twelve interceptions so far this year and has performed poorly in pressure situations. Georgia has clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game and has an excellent chance to make the playoffs, so he will have additional high-pressure situations and big moments to elevate his stock. Jalen Milroe (Alabama) has improved steadily over the last two seasons. He is a fantastic athlete with a rare combination of size, strength, and speed at the QB position. His arm can make every throw and he flashes moments where he can take a game over and seem to be nearly impossible to stop. But from a technique stand point, his footwork needs continued development and he has a tendency to stare down his primary read and telegraph the pass. Milroe may need a year or two of development before he can be a reliable NFL starter. Quinn Ewers (Texas) has been performing well despite his heir apparent (Arch Manning) breathing down his neck. Ewers has good size, very good arm strength, is a good athlete, and throws with anticipation, timing, and touch. But he seems to be constantly injured missing seven games over his three years in Austin, with at least two games lost per season. Although playing ability is vital for success in the NFL, availability is paramount to be a successful NFL QB. And an inability to stay healthy in a twelve-game schedule does not portend a healthy career in the brutally physical NFL version of the game. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) may be the most athletic and gifted QB in this class. He has a combination of athleticism, speed, and arm talent that is rare and he has flashed moments of dominate play – namely, Ole Miss’ victory over Georgia this year. But as displayed in the Rebels loss to Florida last Saturday, he tends to stare down his primary receiver and when under pressure, either with a blitz or a stressful game situation, makes boneheaded decisions with the ball (see his two INTs thrown in the closing minutes of Ole Miss’ loss to the Gators). Dart rarely raises his, or his team’s, play and often fails when the light shines brightest. His style of play is very similar to former NFL QB Jay Cutler and he has similar talent. But unfortunately, what he reminds SNS of is Jay Cutler at the end of his time as Chicago’s QB – and that is not a compliment.
The 2025 RB class could provide the NFL with their next class of dominate backs
Conventional wisdom is that the modern-era of the NFL is a passing league where premium draft picks are only used on QBs, WRs, OTs, EDGE Rushers, IDL, and CBs while the positions of RB, IOL, and LBs are downgraded and filled in with third day (rounds 4-7) and free agent prospects. But take a look at the best teams in the NFL over the last few years and you quickly realize that the best teams are running teams – Kansas City (Isiah Pacheco), San Francisco (Christian McCaffrey), Cincinnati (Joe Mixon), Buffalo (James Cook), and Detroit (David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs). And this is not coincidence or correlation but rather cause and effect – the ability to control the ball, the clock, and dictate the style of play is paramount to winning in the NFL and the most efficient and effective way to do so is running the ball consistently. And since the NFL is the ultimate copycat league, expect the rest of the NFL to follow suit and start prioritizing drafting elite RB talent towards the top of the draft. And the potential RBs at the top of this class are worthy of being prioritized. Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) is one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy and has already surpassed 2,000 yards rushing. Jeanty looks like a lock as a first-round pick next April due to his superb contact balance and vision, leg drive, and burst through the hole. The Dallas Cowboys look like a prime candidate to select the talented Boise State RB. Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) has not quite played up to expectations that had been set in the preseason but he looks like a true bell cow RB with the power and contact balance to excel at inside running. Hampton is not utilized much in the passing game and will need to prove he can be a receiving weapon to become a high round pick. Devin Neal (Kansas) has a great combination of size and speed with the desired vision, agility, and burst to excel at the NFL level. He has displayed the ability to be a true weapon in the passing game although he lacks much experience being used as a third down back. Penn State RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen entered State College as two celebrated recruits who have been the heart and soul of the Nittany Lions offense since their arrival. Both backs are complete RBs who do not need to come off the field on passing downs – Singleton is a quality receiving option with great speed in the open field and Allen is one of the best pass protecting backs potentially available next April. Singleton has a bit more speed and burst while Allen is a rugged inside runner. Both look like featured RBs at the NFL level. TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State) burst on to the scene as a true freshman in 2021 rushing for 1,248 yards and 15 TDs and caught 27 passes for 312 yards and 4 TDs but has struggled with consistency and injuries since, but has seemed to go through a re-birth this season in a platoon system with Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins. Judkins accounted for more than 2,600 yards rushing and 31 total TDs in two seasons in Oxford and has made the OSU offense dangerous on the ground. Henderson is slightly more dynamic and a better receiving option but Judkins displays moments of elite vision and running instincts that look ideally suited for the next level. These are not the only quality, NFL ready prospects potentially available next April. This class could be very special.
The 2023 TE class was a great class and the 2025 TE could be nearly as good
The 2023 TE class is producing difference makers that are opening up offenses and forcing defenses to react to a receiver that threatens the middle of the defense and force mismatches in coverage. Sam LaPorta (Detroit), Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo), and Luke Musgrave & Tucker Kraft (Green Bay) have all added elements to their team’s offense on Super Bowl contending teams. There are several TEs who could work similar magic at the NFL level as soon as next season. Tyler Warren (Penn State) looks like the prototypical Nittany Lions TE in the mold of Pat Freiermuth (Steelers), Brenton Strange (Jaguars), and Theo Johnson (Giants) – just supersized in terms of production and versatility. Warren has played in-line, as an H-back, in the slot, out wide, at FB, at QB, and even center for 10-1 Penn State. He is arguably the best weapon in the offensive attack with soft hands, toughness, and power after the catch. He also plays with leverage and gives great effort in run blocking and is a very dangerous stalk blocker on the perimeter. Although the defending National Champions have struggled significantly this season, just earning bowl eligibility last Saturday, Colston Loveland (Michigan) has been the best and most consistent weapon on an otherwise moribund Wolverines offense. Loveland has been dealing with nagging injuries but has looked like a prototypical NFL TE with the blocking and receiving skill to contribute as a rookie in a manner similar to LaPorta and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Brock Bowers (Raiders). Mason Taylor (LSU), son of Hall of Fame Edge Rusher and Miami Dolphin legend Jason Taylor, has similar athleticism to his father and has steadily improved throughout his time in Baton Rouge. He’s a reliable receiver with the speed to threaten the deep middle of the defense. He possesses a good combination of speed and power to gain yards after the catch and has become a competitive and improving in-line blocker. Terrance Ferguson (Oregon) has ideal size with a huge catch radius and a filled-out frame and has really ascended this season for the only undefeated team in FBS. Ferguson, who has already accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl in February, is very powerful and churns through arm tackles like a hot knife through butter. Ferguson is a candidate to go in the first-round next spring. One prospect flying under the radar is Rivaldo Fairweather (Auburn) who may not fit every system but is a mismatch in space, especially against LBs. Auburn has struggled this season and is hoping to upset rival Alabama to gain bowl eligibility. Fairweather’s blocking and strength deficiencies are notable and need to be overcome over the postseason evaluation process or risk falling out of the draft next April. That process starts for Fairweather on January 30th at the East-West Shrine Game.
2025 Notable Draft Declarations
Shedeur Sanders / QB / Colorado (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Kyle McCord / QB / Syracuse (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Tyler Shough / QB / Louisville (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Jayden Higgins / WR / Iowa State (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Jaylin Noel / WR / Iowa State (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Jimmy Horn / WR / Colorado (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Will Sheppard / WR / Colorado (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
LaJohntay Wester / WR / Colorado (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Tez Johnson / WR / Oregon (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Terrance Ferguson / TE / Oregon (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Eli Stowers / TE / Vanderbilt (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Rivaldo Fairweather / TE / Auburn (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Aireontae Ersery / OT / Minnesota (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Wyatt Milium / OT / West Virginia (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Tyler Cooper / IOL / Minnesota (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Emmanuel Pregnon / IOL / USC (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Landon Jackson / EDGE / Arkansas (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Sai’vion Jones / EDGE / LSU (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Bradyn Swinson / EDGE / LSU (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Cam Jackson / IDL / Florida (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Omarr Norman-Lott / IDL / Tennessee (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Jeffrey Bassa / LB / Oregon (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Eugene Asante / LB / Auburn (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Upton Stout / CB / Western Kentucky (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Zy Alexander / CB / LSU (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
Dorian Strong / CB / Virginia Tech (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Malachi Moore / S / Alabama (Accepted invitation to Senior Bowl)
Shilo Sanders / S / Colorado (Accepted invitation to Shrine Game)
2025 All-Star Game Dates
Hula Bowl
January 11th
Orlando, Florida
East-West Shrine Game
January, 30th
Arlington, Texas
Senior Bowl
February 1st
Mobile, Alabama
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